"Good day David, I noted with interest in your audio last night a bullishness as regards China due to it's loosening of monetary policy. I would also be interested in yours and the collective's opinion on this article which appeared in FT Alphaville."

David Fuller's view Thanks for the link to an opinion which I enjoyed.

In a fast-growing economy of over 1.3 billion people, one does not have to look far for signs of excesses or evidence of corruption. Growth economies will also be bubble prone, which is not the same as saying that they are bubble economies. China spent two years tightening monetary policy - longer than I anticipated - dealing with excesses cause by its huge monetary expansion following the global stock market slump in 2008. The subseqent squeeze has been reflected by the decline in Shanghai A-Shares (weekly & daily).

Last month China began to loosen its monetary policy. It is early days yet but this has been reflected by two upside key day reversals and an upside weekly key reversal. Throughout my financial career to date, reversals of monetary policy have been a far better guide to future stock market trends than all the market commentary available, mine or anyone else's.

I doubt that you are looking for a consensus view on China. But when you observe one - any consensus - my advice would be to regard it as a contrary indicator. Interestingly, a majority of the comments and reports on China that I see are negative, although that is not a broad sampling.

I believe that my responsibility in the forecasting side of my work is to tell you exactly what I think, and why. I trust that you do not expect me to respond to, let alone refute, all the other views. Your challenge as an investor, I suggest, is to weigh the evidence as objectively as possible, and make a commonsense decision that feels right for you. In this effort your best arbiter, I believe, will be the price chart.

You may also find it helpful to review the Asian 2020 report from DBS Group Research which I posted on 29th September.