Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

November 25 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On Rio and BHP:
"Hi David, I hope things are well. I enjoy the service very much and I'm planning to attend the San Francisco chart seminar next year.

"Given the negative market activity since early August, I was thinking about several of Fullermoney's long term investments, specifically RIO and BHP, from the perspective of risk management.

"My question is - what would cause you to sell your positions in the above securities to protect accumulated investment gains or at least to avoid a recurrence of the significant losses experienced in 2008?

"I recognize we all have different risk tolerances, investment horizons and are responsible for our own buy and sell decisions. Therefore I am interested in your thoughts on protecting investment gains when market and economic conditions change to the downside.

"Thank you in advance for your response."

David Fuller's view Thank you for an interesting question, and I know Eoin is looking forward to seeing you during his first visit to San Francisco with The Chart Seminar next year. It should be a lively workshop.

If I felt that Rio (monthly & weekly) and BHP (monthly & weekly) were likely to repeat their 2008 declines, there would be little reason to hold the shares at this time. To me, as a long-term investor in these companies, that is an acceptable risk. In other words, in an uncertain world it could happen although that is not what I expect.

Therefore, I am prepared to take that risk, comforted by the dividends, at a time when both shares are well off their highs. From a risk management perspective, I maintain that the best time to sell is when shares are soaring.

While both of these shares had encouraging rebounds in October, both have fallen back this month and remain in medium -term downward trends. I do not yet know if the October lows will hold but I do know that these two companies have world-class portfolios of mining assets, mostly in politically stable regions of the globe.

I also regard them as more valuable than in 2008, as they continue to acquire assets; their balance sheets are stronger, and both companies have increased their dividends. Both the prices and the demand for their resources have declined relative to a year ago and this is reflected in the price. However, taking a longer-term view, I think they will benefit additionally from what remains the biggest urbanization and infrastructure build in history.

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