Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 29 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On buying sterling assets
"Could you elaborate some more on the potential opportunities for holders of USD to take advantage of the recent decline in the value of sterling and the euro. I notice you touched on this on Friday. Would it make sense to buy into a Euro/UK large cap fund say with companies having extensive overseas earnings/exports or would this opportunity already be priced into the value of these companies in the UK/Euro stock markets?

"Whilst buying into a UK company is cheaper these days thanks to the GBP devaluation I am not so confident on the outlook for earnings in the short to medium term for those companies with majority revenues in the UK. Same for similar Euro companies.

"In short I am interested to understand what could be the strategic opportunities out there as a result of USD strength to buy some assets in those countries that offer some value at present. Thanks for a great service."

David Fuller's view Thanks for your comment on the service.

If one holds some sterling-dominated, UK-listed funds, ITs (open-ended funds) or shares - as I do - which either invest in overseas assets such as Fullermoney themes or in the case of miners, derive all of their revenue from overseas sales, then sterling's devaluation will be fully discounted by the sterling price shown for these assets.

All countries have engaged in competitive devaluations, to a greater or lesser degree, at one time or another. The purpose is to gain an export advantage for domestic companies and also to make foreign imports more expensive. Today, domestic UK and Euroland companies are benefiting from competitive devaluation, which should improve their overseas earnings, consolidated in sterling or euros. There may be a delay before this is priced into equity prices, which is why my last two share purchases were for a Germany company strong in global infrastructure development, which remains a Fullermoney investment theme.

These factors do not apply to domestic UK or Euroland shares which only conduct business within their own country or EU region. However they have become cheaper takeover candidates, following devaluation, for interested overseas companies. The UK remains one of the more open countries in terms of takeovers. UK companies have gained some trade advantage within the European market because sterling's devaluation to date has been greater than the euro's.

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