Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

March 06 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Ireland and accessing country indices via IG Index:
"There are a number of stock market breakouts on indices I monitor; however it seems difficult to bet on these world indices. I'm specifically talking about IG Index and the inability to bet on ISEQ, Brazilian and Thai markets. I'm especially interested in Ireland as sentiment is so negative yet the trend is steadily rising…early stage of a boom?"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this email which I'm sure others will find of interest. While there are no futures available in IG Index for the markets you mention, it is possible to access them via spread-bets on their respective ETFs. There are a number of Brazilian ETFs and investment trusts listed on IG. Ireland can be accessed via the IETF tracker and Thailand via the Aberdeen New Thai IT or MSCI Thailand ETF. I'm sure IG Index's help desk would be able to provide you with a more detailed answer.

I believe there is reason to be positive about the medium-term outlook for the broader Irish stock market. Following the implosion of the banking sector, the ISEQ is now dominated by Building Materials, Food and Airlines. (Also see Comment of the Day on January 11th).

In the Building Materials sector, Cemex announced its intention to acquire the remainder of Readymix in February and CRH's move to a main listing in London and FTSE-100 membership have both helped to raise expectations that the sector is bottoming. Kingspan hit a new 40-month high three weeks ago and appears to be consolidating the gain.

Kerry Group and Glanbia both surged to post new all-time highs in February and are overbought in the short term. A process of mean reversion towards the 200-day MA is becoming increasingly likely. Aryzta found support in the region of the MA in late January, holding the six-month progression of higher reaction lows. A sustained move below €35 would now be required to question medium-term scope for a successful upward break.

Following an impressive rally from the August low, Ryanair has paused above €4 as it tests the 2010 peak. A sustained move below €3.70 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

The Irish ISEQ found support above the 2009 low in August and has rallied impressively since. It is now testing the upper side of the developing base and has become overbought in the short term. A break in the progression of higher reaction lows currently near 310 would suggest a lengthier pause and consolidation is underway.

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