"I have been quiet for a long time (family issues), but continue to follow and enjoy your guidance as much as ever! Thank you.

"I thought that the attached CSFB note might be of interest. The scope is probably excessively comprehensive but I found the initial passages analysing the returns from Emerging market equities particularly interesting.

"It might be easy to conclude that the best strategy to gain exposure to the developing world is via established multinationals in the US or Europe. On the other hand, the data is also presented that could equally lead one to a more EM focused macro view for asset allocation if one were to focus and exclude disruptive crises such as the Asian crisis.... Perhaps the more balanced conclusion is a middle road, that embraces G4 exporters (as your recent trading seems to be doing, David), but takes the occasional country view where the signs are aligned..."

David Fuller's view Thank you for this email and the detailed report above.

Major financial crises are an inevitable although sufficiently infrequent hazard for investors that we can regard them as outliers, in the sense of extreme deviations from the mean. If we are philosophical about them, they are the creative destruction which inflicts damage, on the way to great buying opportunities.

Veteran subscribers know that crises usually occur when major bubbles, in which most people overstay, eventually burst. Thereafter investors look for a repeat, even though the conditions for another similar crisis have usually passed, or at least been addressed sufficiently to reduce risk.

For instance, people remained wary of another Asian Market Crisis long after 1997, even though its financial conditions - not least excessive borrowing in USD - were no longer applicable. More recently, people have worried about another leveraged debt implosion following the USA's and Europe's Great Recession of 2008, even though private sector debt has been much reduced, often via transfer to the public sector where many investors have congregated in the last few years.

Returning to the email above, the two strategies advocated in the final paragraph are sensible and have never been regarded as mutually exclusive. Asian and resources-led emerging (progressing) markets remain at the centre of Fullermoney's favoured secular themes. Therefore I wish to remain invested directly in those countries, mainly via individual market funds, or regional and thematic funds. Additionally, Fullermoney's preference with developed country markets is to concentrate on shares that are geared to the Asian-led global economy.