Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

November 07 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on the repercussions of the election result:
“With the looming fiscal cliff, not to mention the long drawn out Greek agony could this not be one of those rare occasions when the reverse is true to your opening statement i.e. Buy the rumour, sell the news! ”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this question which others may also have an interest in. You will see that I finished the statement with a question mark rather than an exclamation mark in yesterday's copy. That question has been answered with a resounding “sell the rumour and sell the news” this afternoon as investors quickly move on to worry about the fiscal cliff. The increased volatility which is a symptom of increased emotionality may continue for a while longer before markets settle back down.

My comments on the S&P, Nasdaq and Dollar Index are unaffected by today's decline. The ASX 200 may come under pressure tomorrow and its 200-day MA remains an important touchstone. US Treasuries have pushed above 150 and a clear downward dynamic would now be required to question potential for some additional upside. The FTSE-100's large downside key reversal caps the advance in at least the short-term. Additional follow through tomorrow would likely represent a move below the MA and open the way for a further test of underlying trading. Gold's large upward dynamic, staged in the last couple of hours of yesterday's trading, confirms a low of at least short-term significance. It held the advance today and the likelihood of support building in the region of $1700 has improved.

Brent Crude was working on a failed downside break by the end of trading last night and completely countermanded the advance today, falling $4.29. This volatility is indicative of a war between supply and demand but the benefit of the doubt can be given the last dynamic which is downwards.

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