Email of the day (1)
"I started a SIPP account from around the 4th of February. I have slowly built up a portfolio combining shares but mainly funds. All of this is on Fullermoney themes. I have about 20% left in cash but I feel this is too low. Is this correct? What is the optimum level in the current climate for I would like to take advantage of buying when there are corrections especially in emerging, Asian and commodity markets."
David Fuller's view Congratulations on seizing your opportunities
during the last corrective phase. As you mentioned a SIPP (self-invested personal
pension) account, I assume that you are more interested in medium to longer-term
investments rather than trades. Nevertheless, you are probably the best person
to answer your own question and I encourage you to pay attention to your market
"feel" or intuition.
Timing
is an important consideration so I will repeat the template which I have been
mentioning for many months, not least in the Audios:
If we
are in an overall bullish environment, which can be defined as the majority
of stock market indices in uptrends and trading to the left of rising 200-day
moving averages, then the best time to increase longs is following reversions
to the MA mean. If in doubt, perhaps because the longer that overall bull trend
persists the closer it must be to its eventual top, wait for upward dynamics
near the mean similar to what we last saw around 4th February, before buying.
The next best time to buy is following upside breakouts from trading range consolidations
(the momentum play). You can also use 'Commonality', as taught at TCS, to anticipate
some of these breakouts.
Additionally,
if in a bull trend as defined above, the best time to consider taking some profits
is when markets have done so well that they have become overextended relative
to their rising MA mean. Those advances are usually unsustainable beyond the
short to medium term and a reversion to the trend mean will follow, either in
the form of a downward reaction or sideways trading range, or a combination
of these two.
Over
the last fortnight both Eoin and I have repeatedly mentioned that the excellent
stock market rally over the previous nine to ten weeks was becoming increasingly
overextended relative to the mean for numerous trends. Last Friday and also
this Monday, we saw a number of downward dynamics for many important stock market
indices, such as the Dow, Shcomp,
SMI and AS51.
Where they occurred, these interrupted short-term upward trends, indicating
that a reaction and consolidation had commenced. I have also mentioned that
this could turn into a mean reversion correction for some stock markets.
I do
not think that we are witnessing the onset of new or renewed bear markets -
for reasons previously and frequently mentioned, not least in the Audios. However,
there have been some blows to investor confidence recently - mainly deteriorating
sovereign debt problems (see Eoin's item on Euroland's troubled bond markets
below), China's monetary tightening to check property speculation, and the
SEC's case against Goldman Sachs. These events have checked upward momentum
for most stock markets at a time when they were technically overstretched in
the short term. Lastly, debt concerns prevented southern European stock markets
from participating in the February to mid-April uptrend extension rallies seen
elsewhere and laggards such as Greece,
Portugal and Spain
are trading below their MAs.