Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

April 08 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On New Zealand and resources
"Greetings from New Zealand David.

"Here, we are temporarily insulated from much of the financial misery of the rest of the world although the unemployed and the elderly surviving on state benefits probably would disagree with that view. Dividend and bonds have provided excellent yields and the stock market has risen right across the board. A sector which has done particularly well is the healthcare sector and within that sector, the providers of retirement villages. The dividends for these companies have not been great but the capital appreciation has been stunning. Ryman leads the pack. If the election next year brings in a Labour/Green coalition, all bets will be off, borrowing costs will rise and capital will flow offshore.

"I remain heavily invested in the basic resource companies and less heavily invested in gold. I am beginning to wonder whether we have reached the end of the 'super cycle' in both. You certainly have not referred to the commodity super cycle for quite some time. Personally, I reckon we are at a junction and that going forward the basic resources will be underpinned by infrastructure development, not just in China but in Eastern Europe, Africa and eventually, the USA. However, we may never again see the prices of mining company shares such as BHP and RIO at levels equaling or exceeding their 2007/8 levels. As far as gold is concerned, unless the global situation becomes truly desperate, I do not expect it will become as 'fashionable' an asset to hold as it was up to 2011. Too much else in the beauty parade looks more attractive. Like you, I sold my Gold & General units (a bit too early) but then stupidly bought several mining companies and an ETF position all of which are heavily underwater. I've decided to stick with them as an insurance policy."

David Fuller's view Many thanks for this informative email. New Zealand has long been insulated from many of the world's problems, and long may it last. I can remember visiting during that difficult period, mostly between from the early to mid-1980s, before New Zealand recovered in the 1990s, as I recall.

I wrote about it at the time and just refreshed my memory with the help of Wikipedia's Contemporary History, which produced this brief summary, by Jack H Nagel, I believe: "Between 1984 and 1993, New Zealand underwent radical economic reform, moving from what had probably been the most protected, regulated and state-dominated system of any capitalist democracy to an extreme position at the open, competitive, free-market end of the spectrum."

Re the 'commodity supercycle', my more detailed assessments tapered after July 2012 with this summary.

Briefly, it sowed the seeds of its own destruction as both investors and speculators piled in, driving commodity prices up to economically damaging levels which exceeded the 2008 peak in 2010 and 2011. Subsequently, we have been seeing a partial unwind, not least because: "Too much else in the beauty parade looks more attractive", as the email above points out, not least Autonomies, in my view.

Gold has certainly lost its uptrend consistency characteristics but I think it is too soon to write it off beyond the medium term. Similarly, BHP and Rio have certainly disappointed along with most other mining shares but I do think we will see their 2007/8 highs exceeded in the next upturn. Meanwhile, the valuations are very competitive, including yields which offer some consolation during the wait. I am retaining my personal long-term positions in these two shares.

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