Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

June 15 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on Japanese cross rates
"Good evening. Would you please check the CAD-JPY interest rate spread as this has not updated since April and I believe the Canadians increased their rates recently? Further to this, given David's recent long trades in AUD/JPY FX forwards what are your thoughts on CAD/JPY with the potential for relative increases in the CAD interest rate? Many thanks."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this email and the Canadian interest rate data has now been updated correctly. At present, the difference of 40 basis points between the two rates is probably not enough to make very much of a difference to the market but as Canadian interest rate hikes continue to outpace Japan's, they will offer an increasing tailwind to those seeking to short the Yen.

The Canadian Dollar failed to sustain the break above ¥90 in April and fell back to test the lower side of the yearlong range where it found support once more. A sustained move back below ¥82.5 would be required to question scope for some further higher to lateral ranging while a sustained move above ¥95 would clearly indicate demand for the Loonie has regained medium-term dominance.

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