Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

June 28 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On last week's weekly key characteristics
"Thank you both for your continued dedication to this excellent service which I first became aware of in 2002. Your wonderful seminar and subsequent insights have proved an invaluable addition to my investment process over the years.

"I note with interest your comments in Friday's audio about the significance of the key day reversal in the S&P 500 last Monday and was somewhat taken aback yesterday when I conducted the weekly review of charts amongst my favorites and noted the sheer number and the diversity of downside weekly key reversals which occurred last week.

"Among them were the Australian All Ordinaries, the French CAC, the FTSE 100, the German Dax, both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix in Japan, the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the S&P Banks Index, the Dow Jones Transport Index, the Dow Jones Utilities Index, the ASE Index in Greece, the ISEQ in Ireland, the RTS Index in Russia and the VNI in Vietnam.

"Furthermore 53 of the 280 stocks I monitor on a weekly basis also posted weekly key reversals with a particularly high concentration of them in both the energy and the financials sectors including: Baker-Hughes, Chevron, Conoco-Philips, Exxon Mobil, Nabors Industries, Occidental Petroleum, Petrobras, Repsol, Royal Dutch Shell, Schlumberger, Suncor Energy, Total, and Woodside Petroleum in the energy sector and ANZ Bank, Barclays, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Credit-Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Investec, National Australia Bank, Wells Fargo and Westpac in the financial sector.

"Other high-profile examples include: GE, IBM, Microsoft and Walt Disney. Closer to home with respect to the Fullermoney themes BHP Billiton, RIO and Xstrata all suffered the same fate.

"Conversely the only upside weekly reversals I could identify amongst my watch-list were Bovis Homes in the UK and the closely-watched VIX Index although the upside move in the latter would of course be considered a bearish indication for risk-markets.

"I review these charts on a weekly basis and cannot recall such a high concentration of key weekly reversals in any given week since I began subscribing to the service.

"I am cognizant that these negative signals will of course require downtrend confirmation in the coming weeks but wondered whether the high number and diverse nature of these events might warrant additional caution with respect to the equity markets over the coming weeks. I would be interested in your thoughts, as always."

David Fuller's view Thank you for these inspirational opening comments. I commend you for your diligence in reviewing what must be an extensive list of indices and shares in your customised favourites section. I have never found a daily or weekly chart review of key markets to be a waste of time and imagine that most veteran subscribers would agree. Consequently, I posted each of the charts you mentioned in your email above for subscribers' perusal. They also include Monday's start to the current week.

You have correctly identified the key characteristic in each of those instruments listed. For those yet to attend The Chart Seminar, these are big outside weeks, in which the high exceeds the high of the previous week; the low exceeds the low of the previous week, and the close on Friday exceeded the low of the previous week.

These were bearish signals, which certainly caused me concern over the weekend as well, although with the children, grandchildren and cooking, plus too much time spent watching tennis, cricket and football, I did not spot as many of them as you have identified.

Such evidence of selling pressure relative to demand can only be described as bearish, unless it has occurred after a sufficiently big fall to be climactic. That is not the case in this instance. However, you will have noticed that many of these downward dynamics occurred within ranges, rather than the high of a trend. That does not negate their importance but there is a difference.

If the weekly downside key occurs following a consistent uptrend, it represents more of a shock and therefore reality check for many observers, who may or may not even know what a key reversal is. If it occurs within a choppy trading range, it may be viewed more as an additional sign of volatility - not insignificant but probably with somewhat less psychological impact.

I never want to rationalise price action and those big outside days are a real warning that the ranging correction for the markets concerned is not over. A similar move on the upside would be necessary to offset the bearish implications and to reaffirm underlying support.

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