Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

July 01 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On BP
"David hi. Would you consider buying BP at these levels and if not why not."

David Fuller's view I did consider it recently, in terms of a small speculation and actually placed a bid which I soon withdrew when it became apparent that BP was under pressure to cancel the dividend. So for my personal account, the answer is not yet, because there is too much uncertainty over BP's outlook and too many other possibilities are becoming much more interesting due to the current sell-off in most stock markets. Some people are buying BP near the psychological 300p level and we are probably seeing some short covering as well. There are also takeover rumours but that would seem premature given the open ended liabilities following this tragic accident.

In addition to the guess on damage liability, the other question for you and any other subscribers who may wish to buy BP (monthly, weekly & daily) concerns tactics. A 'Baby Steps' scale-down policy would be one approach to consider. Alternatively, one could just wait for a possible decline to the 200p to 100p region, although I have no idea how far BP will fall. You would be better informed by asking President Obama about the extent to which BP will be used as an ATM. The other tactic is to wait for a base formation.

Lastly, David Cameron has sensibly suggested that there should be a closure point in terms of BP's liability. Yes, but since the spill is in the Gulf of Mexico, he will not be able to make that decision.

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