Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

July 13 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (1)

On hyperinflation
"On Tim Price and Weimar Germany [Ed: posted yesterday]

"The above piece brings vividly to mind an experience of mine way back in 1968. My wife and I had just arrived in what was then the Crown Colony of British Honduras where I took up position of the territory's only vet! [for a year anyway]

"We were allocated a government bungalow unused for many years but containing some very dated mahogany furniture. In one draw of a chest of draws I discovered to be full of old German banknotes. There were literally hundreds of very poor quality notes printed on one side only containing a signature, a date 1923 and in heavy gothic printing across the middle. FUNFZIG MILLIONEN MARK. Among these notes were some beautifully engraved and very artistic gems engraved on both sides with the security of the time there to see. These were 1000 Mark notes printed in 1912. I still have one of each of these notes back in the UK. A lesson from history learned personally."

David Fuller's view Thanks for sharing the experience. Every German citizen can repeat similar stories, and considerably more harrowing, told to them by their grandparents and parents. For this reason I believe it would be foolish to write off the euro, while it remains Germany's currency.

Hyperinflations do still occur, as we have seen most recently with Zimbabwe over the last decade. As investors, I think we should keep this in mind, especially when there is a consensus view that there is no inflation and that the main problem we face in the West is deflation. Deflation is the greater concern at present but central banks have more than sown the seeds of future inflation, as the "lesser evil" for their indebted economies. (See also Eoin's comments below.)

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