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Comment of the Day

July 30 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on a chart of the FTSE / Gold ratio
"I trust you are well & hope the markets are treating you kindly. Is there a chart in the library FTSE/Gold as with the Dow/Gold chart?"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for an interesting request and your kind words. The Chart Library is only capable of completing one calculation per chart displayed, so creating a version of the Dow / Gold ratio that would be relevant for the UK is complicated by the currency conversion required on top of the desired ratio. I created a version of the chart in Bloomberg by using the FTSE-All Share Index divided by Gold rebased to British Pounds. I then imported this custom chart into the Chart Library. I used the FTSE-All Share Index rather than the FTSE-100 because Bloomberg's back history for goes back to the early 1970s.

When we compare the Dow/Gold ratio with the FTSE/Gold in Pounds chart, the patterns are broadly similar although gold has performed better against the FTSE than the Dow over the last decade. Both of these charts tell a similar story of gold's secular bull market over the last decade and its outperformance relative to various stock market indices. It also indicates that the trend is well advanced and that further declines for the ratio, if they are to occur, would require significant price moves in the constituent instruments, which is consistent with the third and final stage of a major bull market.

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