Email of the day
"You say that gold is still in a long term uptrend, and you haven't said that any of the fundamental reasons for holding gold have changed, so I am a bit perplexed by your decision to sell your holding in Blackrock Gold and General Fund.
"As a Fullermoney subscriber, (tongue in cheek) would the ultimate contrarian play be to buy gold shares now?!
"PS I know that you like to go to Hay-on-Wye - I will be there in a couple of months - are there any special places/things to do there that you would recommend?"
David Fuller's view We can all be our own best contrary indicators.
I like gold as a long-term store of wealth and have long regarded it as hard money relative to fiat currencies. I have frequently expressed a preference for buying gold on setbacks and selling it on strength. I had felt that it had become a crowded trade recently; it had moved into a period of seasonal under performance; technical evidence of temporary fatigue emerged in June with the two downside key day reversals near $1250.
The BlackRock Gold and General Fund held gold shares which I regard as considerably more risky than bullion and generally much more volatile. I am not suddenly bearish of gold shares but having been overweight in miners generally, I felt it was time to spread the risk and buy something a little less overowned.
Reading between the lines of this email and others of a similar nature, are my reasons above sufficient justification for you or any other subscriber to sell gold shares? Perhaps not, unless you too would rather invest in something else. In a benign market environment I think gold shares have limited downside risk.
Regarding Hay-on-Wye, it is a pleasant little village with lots of second-hand bookstores and some small galleries. We only go to Hay for the Festival in late May. However the surrounding countryside is very beautiful.