Email of the day
Comment of the Day

January 29 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

An additional comment from Jeff Fisher
"I wrote to you to help clarify my own ideas, fears, guesses, ect...
I just can not reconcile the disparity between valuations and the real economy.
Many commentators that I respect seem to give money printing the benefit of the doubt regarding stock prices.
However, when I look at Japanese, Greek, Italian, and Icelandic Indices among others I notice that stocks may perform badly for decades regardless.
Also, most of the time higher stock prices due to inflation seem to come after the economy goes through the wringer and valuations become super cheap.
Like Brazil, Argentina, Russia, India in the past.
Greek yields are rising like I expect US treasury yields to rise.
Very fast and out of nowhere. However, the Greeks can not order the ECB to monetize, Washington will monetize because the Fed will listen.
That will prolong the correction and weak the dollar.

"Greece will have to choose a much smaller government or full Socialism.
There really is no other solution. Government's have tried the mixed economy every which way and from every angle.
It does not work. Chavez took the full Socialism route and the people do not seem to protest.
Obama is hoping his version of the mixed economy will get it right.
Once again, it will not work.
The CBO's recently released Budget Outlook predicts US government receipts will magically jump from $2.17 Trillion in 2010 to almost $3.0 Trillion by 2012.
That would reduce to deficit to $650 billion, still off the charts.
Spending marches ever higher to 5.0 Trillion by 2019.
That is US$ 17,000 per person, or US$67,000 per family of four.
(Of course, their assumptions include very low interest rates and robust GDP growth)
How is that possible with the current dollar?"

David Fuller's view Thanks for the additional comments. I think that many of us share a number of your concerns, as do I. And in all candour, I have far more questions than answers.

Back to top