Email of the day
"As a complete beginner, I particularly value your 'holistic' view of the factors impacting markets. Understanding what is going on certainly helps me to ride the ups and downs with more faith than fear!
"Nearing retirement, I want to keep a portion of my investments in high income equity funds, both UK and global. I see references to "historic yields" but what does this mean in practice? Over what period is the history taken? How does current performance correlate with the historic, if at all, and is there anywhere I can find current yield data? Thanks for your help."
David Fuller's view Thanks for the feedback and for questions
that are certain to be of interest to a number of subscribers who are either
retired or in the latter stages of their careers.
Also,
your modesty becomes you but remember, we are all students of the markets and
you have probably seen enough wide-of-the-mark high-profile forecasts over the
years not to feel daunted in the company of so-called professionals. After all,
you can bring to the analytical table an interested and open mind, common sense
and life wisdom.
Regarding
your questions, I assume "historic yields" means just that but I do
not know the context. You can find current yields in the FT or any other financial
newspaper.
More
importantly, you and many other somewhat older subscribers are right to be interested
in yield. I bought Royal Dutch Shell's UK-listed
B-shares recently because they yielded over 6% and energy is a Fullermoney
investment theme. There are high-yield funds but I am increasingly reluctant
to pay the additional fees. Why not cherry pick by looking at their top-10 holdings
and checking their performance in the Chart Library for promising bases and
consistent trends?
With
high-yield equities I want a promising chart, decent balance sheet, leverage
to the global economy and proven growth potential. For instance, you will probably
know that I also have an investment position in FXC LN, the China Tracker. It's
biggest holding is China Mobile (941 HK, also listed in the USA) (weekly
& daily). It looks to be
breaking up out of an extended base formation; yields 3.45% and has raised its
dividend by a third over the last 5 years. It has a strong balance sheet, good
growth prospects and should have plenty of upside potential over the medium
to longer term.
In the
same sector and if yield is your primary concern, you can get 5% in Vodafone
and this 10-year chart shows the
potential for share performance during the next significant bull run. France
Telecom, which you may have noted from a recent email, currently yields
8.53%. The tradeoff is that Vodafone is unlikely to have the same growth potential
as China Mobile and France Telecom, with even less growth potential, is stretching
to pay its current dividend. However the Company apparently "guaranteed"
it for the next three years in a recent statement.
Lastly,
since many subscribers are rightly interested in higher-yielding equities, particularly
those with the potential to go on increasing their dividends, why not share
the better ideas on this important subject with the Collective? After all, it
is a big, big topic and no one has the time to compile it all on their own.
Of particular interest, I suggest, would be shares or articles on the same,
with proven records of dividend increases. Increasingly, I suspect, we will
find these in the global economy's growth regions. However, there will also
be a growing number of candidates in the OECD countries, more often than not
among companies leveraged to the global economy. We appear to be moving on from
the bad old days when self-serving managements spoke of dividends as the "inefficient
use of capital." Inefficient for whom?