Email of the day
Comment of the Day

September 24 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On a potentially crowded trade
"Gentlemen, I have to admit to being one of the sheeple, the fundamentals of the expanding Asian middle class is soooo compelling and finding anyone who disagrees is getting harder. What say you?"

David Fuller's view Thanks for the article - Emerging markets can't save the world. The mentality behind the headline is the giveaway. It is not the world that needs saving, I suggest, from the credit excesses of the West.


However it is demand from the booming developing (progressing) world which is cushioning downside risk somewhat during this severe credit crisis for the West. This is why Eoin and I have often mentioned and illustrated our preference within the West for multinational companies leveraged to Asia's growth engine. Therefore I agree with that portion of the article.

Are progressing markets a crowded trade today? A few of the smaller ones are, such as Sri Lanka (I thought it looked overextended at 5000) which is enjoying its peace dividend. However most of Asia spent at least nine months in a ranging consolidation so recent strength has some decent underpinnings in terms of chart support.

Also, I posted a very interesting report yesterday, by a strategist who is very bullish of progressing markets, India in particular, but has apparently not had any long positions in equities since March. He was worried about a double-dip recession in the USA and is still looking for a big sell-off.

This raises the question: Are you part of an increasingly crowded majority with your progressing market investments, or are there more people out there desperately hoping for a repeat of the buying opportunity missed in1Q 2009 and also in recent months?

Since all observations are subjective, let the price charts be your guide.

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