Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

August 25 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on coal and traffic jams
"A strange anecdote for the 'inelastic supply meets increasing demand' story. The 9 day, 100 Km traffic jam in China is caused by trucks carrying coal from illegal mines. They choose the Tibet Beijing highway because it is free of Police checks. Two aspects are interesting. One is the demonstration of China's insatiable demand. The other is the authorities' decision to leave a highway free of Police checks - a sort of safety valve. Officially illegal mining is banned, but clearly the Police can't be everywhere... can they? The demand for energy causes such stress on the system, a highway has to be left unpoliced. I thought you might enjoy that one. Kind regards, and many thanks for your valuable insights over the years."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this interesting article. We have become accustomed to stories of bottlenecks at Australia's Newcastle port or of inadequate port infrastructure in Brazil but this is seldom something that comes to light in China. Personally I find the absence of checkpoints on a main artery into the city as rather suspicious and the conspiracy theorist in me wonders what network of business interests the person who made that decision is connected to.

Thermal coal remains in a relatively consistent uptrend and has held up considerably better than more active futures contracts such as oil. The progression of higher reaction lows, currently near $50, would need to be taken out to question medium-term uptrend potential.

Traffic congestion in the world's largest automotive market is becoming an increasingly pressing issue, particularly for Beijing. The subway system continues to expand and is reaching an increasingly large number of neighbourhoods but is unlikely to make a serious dent in the desire for individual transport, particularly when the government is holding up car ownership as a laudable ambition.

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