Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

September 02 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on Asian index P/E ratios
"Re yesterday: The Singapore P/E is published by the Daily Edge, Hong Kong and China P/E I had seen on CNBC Asian video clips

"When I look at your chart from Bloomberg Singapore I see 11.93 P/E not 18.13 but that was an obvious typing error. What I do not understand is the difference between 14.6 and 11.93??

"Indonesia is extremely high and to me overvalued compared with Singapore and Hong Kong. Possibly I will regret it, but I will take my profit in Indonesia and find a new home for it.

"The list you produced monthly is a very interesting one for me, because I partly invest in index or country specific funds when it is not possible for me to invest in individual shares. I have to admit that I never paid attention to this monthly list, I apologize for that!

"It turns out that having been a subscriber for a few years (not sure when I exactly became a subscriber) I still find gems in the daily comment!"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for such a complimentary and informative email. Thanks also for alerting me to the typo in yesterday's comment which has now been corrected. I see from the link you provide that the DailyEdge has sourced its data from Bloomberg but I can't find where. The data I quoted and which appears in the World Equity Index Valuations Table report is sourced from the Bloomberg Description page for each Index.

Indonesia's P/E is currently on the high side, particularly when compared to what is on offer in the rest of the world but is still well below what one might consider a bubble valuation. The Index has had a wonderful run and has been a leader among ASEAN markets which have displayed an impressive pattern of outperformance this year. However since many of these Indices are becoming overextended relative to their mean's, which we define by the 200-day MA, the potential for a mean reversion correction is increasing. Nothing has happened yet to indicate the advance has peaked.

We have often said that instruments in secular bull markets are best bought following reversions towards their cyclical trend means. Profits are best taken when they are accelerating away from their means or one might also consider a trailing stop.

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