Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

September 16 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on Irish fiscal adjustments
"Please try the below link for story on Wilbur Ross buying an Irish Bank. I am struck by the common sense approach of both the Irish government and Irish people. Perhaps this is the fine example of the corporate governance at the state level that David so fondly mentions from time to time. This may be the silver lining for the Irish economy. All the best."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this instructive interview. According to The Irish Times, Wilbur Ross is part of consortium partaking in a competitive bidding process for EBS Building Society. JC Flowers and Doughty Hanson are also competing for the bank.

The Irish government has assumed a mantle of fiscal rectitude out of necessity rather than choice since they were given an ultimatum by the European Commission. However, regardless of the motives, the changes currently taking place in revenue raising and spending cuts are in the long-term interests of the country by helping to improve competitiveness.

Ireland went through a similar blowout in the 1970s and the need for belt tightening resides in the public memory. The authorities have effectively communicated the need for severe cuts with €4billion in additional savings that will need to be found this year and next in order to get the budget deficit close to Eurozone parameters. There isn't quite blood on the streets, although Ireland has had more than its fair share of that in the last century, but I suspect institutional investors with an eye on the very long-term might see value in this market.

The bigger question is how the EU will deal with deficit offenders in future. There is a certain acceptance of the need to cut deficits with continued high funding costs for a number of countries. However, without substantial reform of how the Eurozone's deals with deficit offenders, it runs the real risk of repeating this crisis again at some point. This article by James Neuger for Bloomberg highlights the differences of opinion between member states on how this might be achieved. Germany, unsurprisingly, is in favour of severe sanctions for offenders whereas France and Spain are much more inclined to a light touch. The strength of any eventual deal is likely to be a factor in how investors view the long-term integrity of the currency union.

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