"Hope you can spend some time in the wildness besides sharing your spot-on investment ideas with other equally super smart guys from the investment industry at this Contrary Opinion Forum. I recall that last time you were at the same forum happened to be in one of the worst moment in the midst of the financial crises two years ago. I think either you or one of the forum organizer said between the powerful arguments from the fundamental camp (more gloomy view) and technical chart-readers (seeing the bottom and investment opportunities), he would take the side of chart-readers. We know now you or he was right then. I feel a bit of the same situation in the recent weeks: a tug of war between the bulls and bears as mentioned in your Comment of Day today.

"It's a daily reckoning (to steal a jargon from Mr. Bill Bonner) here living inside the hot spot of China. There are just so many forces at play that one finds himself changing his view or mood from day to day. With the benefit of the wisdom from both you and Eoin in the past a few years, I have learned to be cautiously optimistic and focus on big themes rather than daily news or individual stock story. Just like the old wisdom in the Taoism (so I believe), it is the long-term health that matters more than instant gratification. But pls don't hold on to me on this as I confess I have never studied Taoism in any details, but somehow all Chinese seem to understand Confucianism or Taoism a little bit. The point is: it is the same with investment. The average absolute return is our ultimate target, so we don't get bogged down too much by a big win or loss here and there."

David Fuller's view Thanks you for this kind and wise email. We can all benefit from understanding some Confucianism and Taoism, as both individuals and investors.

I will have some time to enjoy the seasonal qualities of New England and also look forward to a reunion of siblings and spouses who are travelling in from Europe, Canada and Saudi Arabia.

I too have been thinking about the Contrary Opinion Forum in the second week of October 2008. It felt surreal - beautiful scenery, great food and plenty of agreeable conversation as the world's stock and commodity markets were collapsing around us. In reality, the calls were not too difficult if one remained analytical rather than emotional. After all, the technical action was climactic and valuations were much improved. However I will not pretend that it was not scary. My somewhat biased recollection is that the older value investors and older technicians, including a number of delegates who were not speakers, were most accurate in their views. There was also some emotional talk of depression and anarchy. I had not looked at my presentation subsequently but have done so this week as I prepare next week's talk. Here is my presentation from 8th October 2008: Après Götterdämmerung (Twilight of the Gods). The title is actually quite optimistic, as I said at the time, if you think about it. The Fullermoney Forecasts were summarised in the last three slides 38-40.