Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

January 17 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On investing today, if you have cash:
"If we accept psychology (self & crowd), plays a very important role in the investment decision making process, it's probably fair to say that an individual with a cushion of profit in a portfolio might be more willing, eager even, to add to positions on a dip, than say a virgin investor initiating positions with no cushion. You have mentioned in recent past that you are very happy to be 100% invested and have added to positions. What would you say to someone with no existing portfolio in today's market?"

David Fuller's view Thanks for raising an important question, which I will answer on the basis of what I would probably do in the circumstances which you describe.

I adjusted my equity portfolio last year, as discussed in the email above, with a view to lowering risk. On that same basis, if starting from scratch today, I would avoid the temptation of purchasing high-flying investments which everyone else held and recommended.

Instead, I would either wait until some of the better performing Fullermoney themes experienced mean reversions back to their medium-term uptrends approximated by the rising 200-day moving averages, and also showed signs of firming near those MAs.

Additionally, I would consider Fullermoney themes which were not technically overextended but appeared well supported by underlying trading ranges. I would certainly consider some of the higher-yielding energy trusts or other 'Dividend Aristocrats' reviewed by Eoin recently. I might also consider a uranium play. The latter have moved sharply higher in the last six months but most are still only completing base formations.

Lastly, you presumably had good reasons for staying out of equities. If those have now changed, I would not dive in hoping to catch up. Instead, I would proceed incrementally, selecting what best suits your investment objectives and temperament.

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