Email of the day (2)
"The Coffee Robusta price chart which was discontinued in 2009.can it be used and is it relevant to the current price chart on the 1st month contract. Hope that makes sense."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this question which may be of interest to
other subscribers. This link
to Comment of the Day on January 28th 2009 has some additional information on
the reason for the contract change. In summary, the contract now refers to 10
tonnes instead of 5 and the quality of coffee accepted is higher. The new revised
robusta coffee contract picked up where the old
contract left off, so while the reference quantity is different, I believe
it is reasonably safe to assume that the back history on the old contract is
relevant.
The revised
contract took some time to gain traction as producers adapted to the new
requirements. Arabica outperformed considerably
from early 2009 and Robusta is still lagging. Both remain in persistent medium-term
uptrends but are becoming increasingly overextended relative to their respective
200-day MAs. The risk of a reversion to the mean is rising and a break of the
short-term progression of rising reaction will probably signal the onset of
such a corrective phase.