"Excellent op-ed in the New York Times outlining the Greek incentive to default. The fact that there is a credible historical blueprint (for "success") in Argentina gives further strength to the argument.

"The "kick the can down" the road European solution looks set for its biggest challenge to date and I imagine cries from the Greek populace for default will intensify as it learns that such a move is both self-serving and ideal and won't end the world as the Germans would have them believe."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this interesting article which I'm sure will be of interest to subscribers. Delegates at both the Singapore and Sydney seminars also expressed interest in Europe's travails. CDS spreads for Greece, Ireland and Portugal are all now rated as riskier than Argentina, mentioned in the above article.

The sovereign debt problems for these three countries remain significant obstacles for the Eurozone. European banks have been able to post peripheral bonds as collateral at the ECB or have already sold them off, but the question of just how these countries are going to service their debts remains open and a threat to the currency generally.

I can't find a precedent for a country that has been able to successfully implement such radical fiscal austerity and revenue raising exercises without allowing its currency to fall in value. Therefore the attitude adopted by core Eurozone countries towards the periphery; demanding tax hikes and spending cuts is unlikely to prove fruitful. Counter cyclical policies are politically unpalatable but appear necessary. It seems to be only a matter of time before peripheral countries demand easier conditions on bailouts as well as additional funds.

The Euro Trade Weighted Index posted a large weekly key reversal last week and appears to be following through this week. A sustained move above 135 would now be required to question potential for some additional downside.