"In your audio this morning you mentioned 4 potential warning signs which might indicate the end of the bull run in stock markets. I tried to make notes of what they were but am not confident that I got them right, This is what I noted:

1. Stronger economic growth in developed markets 2. Signs of recovery signalled by - oil over $ low 80s (except for speculative bubble inspired by continuing growth in metal prices) 3. Govt bond yields pushing above 4% 4. US $ testing previous lows.

"Could you please tell me if I heard you right? Did I miss anything?

"If the bull market did come to an end would it signal an end to precious metal and other commodity bull runs?

"Thanks for your very interesting interpretations."

David Fuller's view You are welcome and I will spell out those views. In reverse order, I maintain that we are in a cyclical bull market for equities and a secular bull trend for precious metals and most industrial commodities. For instance, gold has a 10-year uptrend - the S&P 500 clearly does not.

However there has been a high degree of correlation so any sharp sell-off in equities will weigh on commodities for which there has also been considerable investment interest. Nevertheless, most commodities have bounced back quickly, bottoming in October 2008, for instance, in line with most other Fullermoney themes, while the S&P and most other OECD country stock markets did not reach their lows until March 2009.

The main point behind my stock market warning signals, which I have mentioned before and will again, is that too much good news is bad news. 1) Strong economic growth competes for capital and invites monetary tightening by central banks; 2) strong growth and too much speculation would lift oil prices over the low $80s highs for this cycle to date, towards headwind levels of $100 or more; 3) US 10-year Treasury yields above 4% would be an advance warning but the real danger area is above 5%; 4) a very weak USD could undermine confidence but this is clearly not a threat today. Also watch the February lows for stock market indices; the cyclical bull is intact while they hold.