Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

March 08 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On whether or not gold keeps up with inflation
"With regard to gold, some say it has never kept up with inflation - what is your view on this."

David Fuller's view I doubt that the price of gold has kept up with inflation over the centuries. However I cannot prove it, not being a stats wonk and I suspect this takes us into Mark Twain's territory of: "…lies, damned lies, and statistics." For instance, are we talking about the inflation data of various governments, which we know beyond a reasonable doubt to be understated, or so-called shadow (independent) statistics which I suspect are more objective.

More importantly, in our era I suspect gold will struggle when short-term interest rates are meaningfully higher.

I believe there is a larger question: Will gold remain a world-class store of wealth over the very long term? Yes, in my opinion, because of its unique properties, history and relative scarcity. Nevertheless, gold bullion will still have a widely fluctuating price, subject to liquidity and the whims of fashion, just like everything else that is arguably of value.

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