"Following the discussions in the last Comment of the Day on whether we saw the bottom in August and the comparison with last year, I wish to mention that if the economic background must be seen as a clue, we did not.

"The leading indicators for the US economy have turned down since the beginning of the year, and so did the actual "year-on-year" GDP growth since the last quarter of 2010. We have similar situations for all countries. The ECRI leading indicator tells the same story.

"Historically, such an event is not to be resolved shortly. With that perspective (I attach a graph to [email protected]) the hiccup of 2010 was only the beginning of the broader pattern we are currently in, which was momentarily mitigated-in the market's eye- by QE2.

"When things start like that, the recovery seldom happens before 18 months, that would put us around mid-2012 for the markets to perceive the end of the worries and resume an uptrend.

"There is no crystal ball, but if we are to get a feeling from economic data, the odds favor a longer bear market."

David Fuller's view Thank you for these important points and also for the informative graph which we have had to shrink in creating a format for the website.

The US economy and in our view, particularly the global economy are indeed important. They are mentioned almost daily in Audios, where we can cover more details, and frequently in Comment as well.

To repeat one point previously mentioned, we regard corrections of approximately 10 to 15 percent for the S&P 500 as normal when the US economy is expanding. However, history shows that these declines are more likely to reach 25 to 35 percent and sometimes more during recessions, which is logical given the damage to corporate profits in economic downturns.

Fullermoney remains decidedly cautious regarding the short to medium-term economic outlook in the west, for all the reasons previously mentioned by ourselves and others. However, we all know that the stock market will turn upwards once again long before lagging economic data. We also know that the stock market is one of the most important leading indicators.

Following this year's sell-off on weakening economic activity, the recent bounce is in anticipation of an additional stimulus, so there is scope for either positive affirmation or disappointment in the weeks ahead. In our separate but complementary assessments and summaries yesterday, both Eoin and I listed market developments and criteria that we would expect to either reaffirm or refute the bottoming out hypothesis, which remains a close call in our view.