Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

October 03 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on shale gas:
"Listening to Eoin's comment on Friday he again mentioned the Fuller money theme of Shale Gas and its game changer impact.

"You have highlighted in the past some of the players, exploration, pipe & pumps, transport, Ocean transport etc.

"Do you have a list anywhere of these companies that fall into this category that you would see as being in a good position to capitalise of Shale gas?

"As always, keep up the good work."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this email which may be of interest to other subscribers. The sectors most likely to benefit from shale gas extraction have been discussed on a number of previous occasions, not least in Comment of the Day on July 22nd 2011 and June 13th 2011.

A pro-shale gas report by Matt Ridley "The Shale Gas Shock" for GWPF makes the case for shale gas and reiterated our point that pure play shale gas producers may not be the greatest beneficiaries of this development. Here is a section:

25. Consequently, in the rush to develop shale gas wells and demonstrate high volumes of production to shareholders, most companies are spending 200-400% of cashflow on drilling and are creating only negative shareholder value as they accumulate debt. As volumes depress prices, this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, exacerbated by the `use-it-or-lose-it' character of 5-year drilling leases. However great the resource proves to be, companies will go bust trying to develop it. This is a pattern familiar to historians of early railways and dot-com companies. In short, there is a speculative bubble in shale gas.

26. This argument has force, but Berman's audience is investors, not consumers. It is quite possible that investment in shale gas firms will indeed prove risky as their very success drives gas prices down. But that will only happen if volumes of gas produced are high; and it does not mean that exploration and drilling will cease, for if they did, prices would rise again and exploitation would resume. After all, this has been the experience of the coal industry, the oil industry, and many other industries throughout history: success drives down prices, leading to business failures, but over the long term this does not prevent continuing expansion of production because low prices stimulate expanding consumption.

Companies that benefit from low natural gas prices such as nitrogen based fertilizer and chemical companies have been some of the better performers in the sector. Natural gas transportation companies, primarily by pipeline, have also been absolute and relative outperformers. LNG tanker companies should also be beneficiaries of increased trade in natural gas internationally.

I created this Chart Library Performance Filter from my Favourites which contains 99 shares in the shale gas, oil services, fertiliser, chemical, LNG tanker, coal bed methane and pipeline sectors which may offer a useful starting point for your due diligence. Almost all of these companies have been reviewed at some point in Comment of the Day and can be found using the Search.

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