Email of the day (2)
"Thanks again for the excellent service throughout a seesaw last 6 months
"Both you and David appear confident about the prospects for the Gold Price in the medium term I would like to participate here but an not confident in my ability to trade futures..
Could you recommend some instruments in the following areas?
"Gold ETF & Gold Miners Investment Trusts/ETFs"
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for your kind words. Investment demand for gold remains robust. Within the
context of the uptrend from the 2008 low, the acceleration earlier this year
represented a deviation from the previous pattern of demand dominance. A somewhat
lengthier period of ranging and consolidation was likely following that event
as prices reverted towards the mean, represented by the 200-day MA.
Gold
prices pulled back sharply to the MA in a very short period of time and have
subsequently ranged higher in a comparative steady recovery. A successful upward
break sometime in the first half of next year is a reasonable expectation given
the chart action and gold's record of hitting important peaks in March/April.
It should
be noted that confidence does not make us money. Our views need to be constantly
tempered by the price action.
With
regard to gold mining shares oriented funds, there tends to be some variability
in results depending on whether a fund focuses on large, mid or small cap shares.
The Blackrock
Gold & General Fund has performed
more or less in line with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. In the US, the Market
Vectors Gold Miners Index has a similar
pattern. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners
Index has underperformed somewhat over the last year.
As veteran
subscribers will be aware, we favour physical gold ETFs because there are considerably
fewer questions about who actually owns the gold and they do not use derivatives
to mimic gold's price action.
In the UK Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities
and ETFS Physical Gold hold physical
gold and have Pound and US Dollar versions.
In the USA SPDR Gold Trust and Sprott
Physical Gold Trust both hold physical gold bullion and are denominated
in US Dollars.
In Australia ETFS Physical Gold holds
physical gold and is denominated in Australian Dollars.
In Switzerland the ZKB Gold ETF holds
physical gold and is denominated in Swiss Francs. The Julius
Baer Physical Gold Fund also holds physical gold and has Euro and Swiss
Franc versions.