"I think one has to start thinking about a bond rout if Romney wins, and boots Bernanke…."

David Fuller's view Knowing that the person sending this email is a keen observer of political developments in addition to his own analysis, I wrote back and asked: We do need to think about it and may I ask, what realistic odds do you attach to each of these possibilities? He replied:

"50/50 Romney wins. Booting Bernanke may be inevitable, but timing uncertain. And then we can forget about future operations twists, QE, etc. Bonds tank…I won't bet my life on it (:>)"

Neither would I but an effective campaign by Romney between now and November could make the election close. It should be interesting. Regardless of who wins, I maintain that it is only a matter of time before US long-dated government bond yields rise. However, I also know from personal experience that it is very easy to lose money by shorting Treasuries prematurely.