“I'm interested in your view on what has been behind the 16% increase in the price of wheat in the last 4 trading days, and whether this looks like a false breakout or not. Many thanks for your excellent services,”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words and this interesting question. This article from Bloomberg suggests that the threat of drought in south west Russia and Ukraine has been a catalyst for speculative interest in wheat prices. Rains appear to have arrived today but the question is whether it will be too little too late.

Wheat prices held last week's advance today. It will need to hold the majority of last week's gain if the upside is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt. Matif traded Milling Wheat, Liffe traded Wheat, Minneapolis Spring Wheat and Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat all surged last week and but will also need to hold the majority of their gains.