"As a 20+ year subscriber I appreciated the last issue dedicated to the US Midwest food disaster and reaffirmed my long time positions in POT, AGU, TER, and YAR. With your long time interest in global weather trends do you have any info on crop outlook in the world's other breadbaskets and also can you think of a way to invest in the huge phosphorous mines in Morocco?

"As the poet said "it is an ill wind ......" "

David Fuller's view Thanks for the feedback, your interesting questions and your long-term interest in Fullermoney.

It is very difficult to get accurate crop information without a local presence, and that may only be relevant for one of many agricultural regions. Wheat, for instance, is produced in almost all of the world's countries. Long-term weather forecasting, I dare say, is event more challenging than market forecasts of similar duration.

Nevertheless, even moderately good research is worth the effort, if it helps us to become a one-eyed participant in the kingdom of the blind. In this effort, our most useful tools are price charts which enable us to see everything, if we take the time to look. It helps to know what is behind those snapshots of price trends and anyone can search Bloomberg, Reuters and the www for up-to-date information. The Collective of Subscribers also provides useful insights, articles and research reports.

Price charts on a major commodity exchange such as the CME also reflect perceptions regarding crop prospects in other major agricultural regions. US soybeans, for instance, were early upside leaders because drought reduced the yield of South America's crop earlier this year. Plenty can go wrong during the crop cycle, from germination, to growth-to-maturity and then the harvest. Farmers in countries with poor storage or transport facilities face additional problems.

An ongoing concern of mine is that for the third consecutive year we have seen above average weather damage for corn and soybean crops. This is not unprecedented but it is unusual. The USDA's global wheat outlook is down this month. Eastern Europe experienced some drought in June and heavy rain in parts of Russia is now impeding an early harvest. Wet weather may also be a problem for harvests in Northern Europe and the UK.


We can be certain that where prices for agricultural commodities are high, farmers will make every effort to increase their output for the next crop cycle. This should be favourable for fertilizer companies, as Eoin discussed yesterday. Unfortunately, there does not seem to be any way to invest in Morocco's phosphate industry, unless you are related to King Mohammed VI, who owns and controls much of it.