Email of the day (2)
"Even though I am a very long-term subscriber, and a visitor of 3 Chart Seminars this email is probably the 1st time I have written to you. Ii have just sold an apartment in Paris which I owned for a long time, and so I have got a few Euros floating around. My natural inclination would be to convert the proceeds back to AUD or HKD for investment purposes, but the AUD and even the NZD & SGD have an almost perpendicular rise against the EURO. Do you assess those rises as a final blow off or would you look for a "KEY DAY REVERSAL" before you see the Euro weakness coming to an end. I would appreciate your comments?"
David Fuller's view Nice to hear from you and thanks for
your long-term interest in Fullermoney and TCS.
You
are also prescient because this daily chart of EUR/AUD
shows a small upside key day reversal today.
As
an experienced investor it is usually a good idea to follow your "natural
inclination", but as you have presumably also considered, you may not want
to convert out of euros immediately or all at once. Today, every bank forex
department is heavily short euros, so it is a candidate for a bounce. We could
even see a bear squeeze if the ECB produces a reassuring surprise but given
the nature of the eurozone's problems, I think it would be premature to look
for a "final blow off" anytime soon. I also maintain that a soft euro
is part of the ECB's plan.
To follow
your inclination, you could convert out of euros incrementally on the euro's
next technical rally which may not be that far off, judging from today's upside
key. Alternatively, if you think this important reserve currency has a reasonable
future, you could invest your euros in some of Europe's high-yielding Autonomies
or Dividend
Aristocrats which Eoin reviews periodically.