Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

November 23 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On 'looking for silver linings':
"This caught my eye amidst the sea of pessimism."

David Fuller's view Thanks for the article which is of interest. Here is the opening:

John Templeton, one of the greatest investors of all time, said that investors should buy at the point of maximum pessimism. Nothing illustrates the adage of something being easy to say and hard to do more than that statement. It is of course at the point of maximum pessimism that our natural psychological barrier to executing that strategy is greatest. Humans have a survival instinct and just when things reach their nadir is when most investors let that instinct take over. And there is nothing that could be more damaging to one's net worth than allowing fear to take over just when the opportunities are the greatest. How many investors gave up in late 2008 or early 2009, sold all their stocks and still haven't recovered from the losses of the great financial crisis? Based on the continued high traffic numbers at Zero Hedge, I'd say a lot.

I thought of that Templeton quote last week as I watched the stock market fall another 1.5% based primarily on fears about the outcome of the negotiations over the fiscal cliff. The gloom lifted a bit Friday when Republicans and Democrats held hands and sang Kumbaya in the Rose Garden after a "constructive" meeting on how to resolve their differences about how much of our money to take and spend. I couldn't help but think that Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell all must have checked their brokerage balances before that meeting and decided that maybe compromise wasn't such a bad thing after all. We don't know the details yet on what the negotiations will yield but a good guess would be that they come up with something that pushes the hard decisions off to next year. If there is one thing our politicians can be counted on for it is to put off until tomorrow anything that might prevent them from taking a vacation.

A "sea of pessimism" is not much fun because so many people are stressed. However, you are clearly a contrarian thinker so I am sure you agree that it is better to buy when people are distressed than to join the party when it has reached the stage of congratulatory high fives and mutual back slapping.

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