Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

June 20 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On the timing of the end of QE
"I wonder if there is another influence at work with regard to the timing of the termination of QE.

"Each freshly elected government likes to get all their detrimental decisions to their chances of being re-elected out of the way as early in their term as possible. More voter friendly policies are introduced closer to the election to give the incumbents a better chance of being re-elected. The democrats are not going to want bad news and a volatile stock market in 2015/16.

"Although Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are supposed to be independent, I can imagine he and they will be under political pressure to get 'bad news' and its negative consequences out of the way so that 2015/16 will provide a sunlit path for the democrats. If the Fed is proving less than malleable could this explain Obama's attitude? Incidentally a ranging market, or at least one without much real upside between now and the end of next year, could provide the platform for your oft reported phenomenon of a rising stock market in the third year of a second presidential term. Pure conjecture of course, and may be a little wishful thinking."

David Fuller's view These are interesting points, although I would add that a number of US economic commentators have been calling for an end to QE, fearing that it was creating bubbles. I think we certainly had Bubbliciously low yields in 10-Yr T-Bonds (weekly & daily) at their July 2012 trough of 1.379%. I also think President Obama has reason to be concerned over the increasing cost of borrowing as those yields have surged higher since early May.

Back to top