"I am finding bullish arguments more and more non-believable, from my perspective. I attempt very hard to be an independent thinker, neither permabull or permabear. I have been bearish now for the past 6 months because I have felt that economic data was being misinterpreted, or should I say that there was no beef in the underlying reasons for headline numbers that could lead to true optimism about the recovery. Based on the most recent data coming from the various Fed districts and the hardly noticeable change in the tone of Fed statements, I now believe we have entered into a dangerous price deflation zone. It is led, of course, by horrific housing numbers. It is not far fetched to see how this could snowball. My main point is this. As time goes by, I find myself becoming more discriminate about investing or trading. There are no sure things, but that does not stop me from looking for arguments that are irrefutable (in my opinion only). I believe we have one now and that is that there will be government intervention with another significant round of quantitative easing (they have no other options). When, how much, and what impact on equity and bond prices this will have are anybody's guess. However, the one thing I feel strongly about is that this will lead to much stronger gold prices. The nice thing about not having career risk involved is that you can call it as you see it, not having to straddle fences or please the public. The worse that could happen is your timing is wrong or you are totally off base. Bottom line-buy gold here and be very careful with any other economically sensitive commodities."

David Fuller's view Thanks for this summary of your thoughts. You have helped me to think laterally, so I offer the following maxims:

1) If we don't call it as we see it, it is marketing rather than market analysis. 2) We should always ask ourselves if our views have been influenced by others to the point where they represent a consensus, in which case we may become our own contrary indicator. 3) We should stress-test our views rigorously against the reality check of price trend action. 4) All stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities are not equal so we should select with the perspective of a judge at an international beauty contest. 5) Be neither a permabull nor permabear but remain perma-interested to keep in touch.

Lastly, you are talking about the US economy, but is that what you would actually be buying? Many of us invest in shares for which corporate profits and dividends will be the primary interest. Fortunately, many individual US companies are doing considerably better than the US economy. However if you feel the economic risks are still too great, most Fullermoney themes are not directly linked to the US economy.