Email of the day
Comment of the Day

February 22 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on finding shares in the Chart Library and Chinese A-share holdings:
"Martin Spring's favorite lock-up stock for the long term is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Why is it not in the chart library? Kindly add it if you can,"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion. However, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China has been in the Chart Library for years and can be found in the Equities (Selected) section of the Chart Library. When using the Chart Library search, less is very often better than more because in the title "&" is used instead of "and". The common acronym "ICBC" would also not have worked. However, if you searched using either "Industrial" or "Commercial" as a keyword you would have found it. The ticker "601398" would also have worked for the mainland Chinese listing. The share is also quoted in Hong Kong and the USA under the tickers "1398" and "IDCBY" respectively. Both of these can also be found in the Chart Library.

The banking sector has been the focus of China's tightening as it attempts to clamp down on property speculation and lax lending practices. Reserve ratio requirements continue to be hiked which has forced most of China's banks to seek additional capital and has depressed shares prices through dilution.

I bought ICBC, Bank of China and Communications Bank in 2007 which in retrospect was not a smart move. The bad timing of the purchase has been softened somewhat by the deterioration of the Pound against the Yuan over the intervening period but does not excuse the original poor investment decision. Nevertheless, I originally bought them as long-term investments and remain optimistic about their long-term future.

All three have underperformed the wider market over the last few months but have at least lost downward momentum. They yield between 3 and 4% which is competitive by Chinese standards. They will need to break their medium-term progressions of lower rally highs to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

My two other positions in Chinese A-Shares are Citic Securities and Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium. Citic Securities, which I purchased in 2009, is one of China's larger brokers and has recently been negotiating with CLSA on a joint venture. It found support above CNY12 in October and posted a higher low in January, but otherwise has a relatively similar pattern to the above banking shares.

Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium is my largest A-Share position. It has more or less tracked the zinc price and is currently testing the upper side of the more than yearlong range near CNY30. While susceptible to a pullback and consolidation, a sustained move below CNY24 would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

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