Email of the day
Comment of the Day

April 15 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on European politics:
"Whether this e-mail is relevant enough to be published, I leave it for you to decide.

"There seems to be some nervousness in the markets regarding the Finnish elections this Sunday, and its potential effect on the European debt problems. According to polls, a right-wing nationalistic and populist party is about to reach a big victory. As a Finn, I wanted to offer my humble opinion on the matter.

"As in Germany, backing other countries' debts within the Eurozone is unpopular in Finland. Politicians being politicians, they try to attract votes by making statements they think people want to hear. Obviously this takes place even louder just before elections. Even the current government, that is backing these bailouts, wants to be seen "tough on PIIGS". In my view, these noises will calm down shortly after a new government is formed, regardless of the outcome of the elections. From a Finnish perspective, the bottom line is: Finland is an export driven economy, therefore it is in its best interest not to "rock the boat". This fact will keep also the new government behind the various rescue packages, so Finland will, for its share, continue to support its fiscally weaker Eurozone colleagues.

"P.S. Just registered for the May seminar in London. I look forward to meeting you there!"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for sharing your insights and I also look forward to meeting you at the upcoming London seminar. I'm sure your particular perspective will be appreciated by the Collective. I believe you are correct in assuming various export-led European economies will continue to help support the periphery if for no other reason than the banking sectors of France, Germany and the UK have lent heavily to countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Nevertheless, it is looking increasingly likely that at least one country will need to restructure debts. That could have a negative knock-on effect on the European banking sector.

The DJ Stoxx 600 Banks Index remains largely rangebound and has exhibited a downward bias over the last few months. It needs to hold above the 200 area if the 18-month status quo is to remain intact. The Eurozone equivalent has more of a downward bias.

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