Email of the day (3)
"Thanks for your prompt response to my question about the UN food price index (Fullermoney 11 March).The meats index in your chart library I was referring to - at least I assume it is a meats index - is the Dow Jones-UBS Livestock Index from the "Commodity Indices" section. This shows a decline from 60 to 40 since the start of 2008, although that doesn't seem to fit with charts of individual meats (which I have now looked at) which all show higher levels than 2008, and of course it doesn't fit with the UN's meat index."
Eoin Treacy's view Thank
you for clarifying which livestock index you were looking at. The various Dow-Jones
UBS commodity indices, such as the Livestock
Index you mention, reflect the cost of holding a passive long position in
a futures market. The only time they will track the price is when interest rates
are low, prices have risen enough to defray management costs and the market
is trading in backwardation.
Since
meat futures such as live cattle, feeder
cattle, lean hogs and pork
bellies are highly cyclical, due to the slaughter schedule, they tend to
move from wide contango to wide backwardations at regular intervals. The roll
costs from one contract to the next can therefore be quite large and this is
reflected in the Index's price.
The individual
futures price is a better indication of
a particular commodity's performance.