Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

March 21 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On rising bond yields:
"Dear David, thank-you for an excellent service as usual. Have you ever considered establishing a managed fund? Would make life much easier!!! I partially joke of course because it isn't your line of business but would save myself and no doubt others a lot of work. Question. I note your relatively frequent references to the play on rising yields on bonds for many years to come. The play being investing on the dips. Could you recommend ,in your opinion, the best market to invest in, $/£ etc. Following on from this the easiest vehicles to invest in, ETFS etc. I understand this is an elementary question but it seems to me that understanding the principle is one thing but investing in the right vehicle is equally important."

David Fuller's view Thanks for the feedback. In answer to your mostly in jest question, no, because then this service would become bait for the money management business. Eoin and I enjoy producing this interactive service for people who prefer to manage their own money, as do we.

Regarding yields, I will summarise by saying that for investment, in the current environment and probably well into the future; we have a strong preference for high-yielding shares. We think bonds have become riskier because yields are likely to go up more than they go down, at least until the next global recession.

Consequently, I am more interested in shorting long-dated government bonds, subject to timing. My preferred instrument for this is 30-year US Treasuries, where I maintain that yields are in a ranging base building phase prior to trading higher over the longer term. Because there will be much more ranging than trending in government bonds, I prefer a Baby Steps sell-high-buy-low trading strategy.

Shorting bonds is most definitely a speculative activity because of their yield. For this reason Fullermoney definitely does not advocate a buy-and-hold position in any of the ProShares short bond funds. Instead, we suggest that anyone using them attempt to time the entry points with the help of price charts. If yields come down due to global concerns such as the Middle East uprisings, as we have seen recently, we can be reasonably sure that yields will rise again when that is no longer a concern.

My own Treasury bond shorts have been in futures with spread-betting firms, but this is certainly not for everyone.

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