Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

March 12 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On the ISA season
"We seem to be in 'the ISA season' again! Previously David has made a few suggestions for family investment. His current ideas would be very welcome!

"(I recall attending a Chart Analysis seminar about 35 to 40 yrs ago - where I seem to recall David speaking! Could my memory be correct? I think it was run by a lady whose surname I cannot recall - beginning with a D??) I 'lost' contact for many years - but greatly appreciate your service now I have more time to think! Sincere regards)"

David Fuller's view How nice to hear from you and thanks for the comments. Your memory is correct - my first London seminar was in 1970. They have been held every year subsequently and Eoin has been conducting them since 2008.

Regarding ISAs, I believe the new season commences on 6th April at which time each individual can add £10,200 to their account. ISAs do not have to pay CGT on profits, so they are a good vehicle for UK citizens, despite Gordon Brown's shameful introduction of a tax on dividends some years ago.

ISA top-up dates commence during a period when stock markets are entering a less rewarding period seasonally, although last year certainly proved to be an exception. I remain hopeful for 2010. As Mrs Fuller and I are still gainfully employed (she as a psychoanalyst), we tend to invest in Fullermoney themes rather than income generating funds. However, they have done quite well and while I am happy to hold, I am reluctant to chase.

Consequently I am looking for laggards which have at least cyclical catch-up potential. A drawback to this approach is that markets often lag for a good reason, which needs to change if investment demand is to increase sufficiently to produce relative performance. Also, because we are talking about ISAs, the candidates need to be listed in the UK to qualify for eligibility.

I could top-up one of my two China funds, which are the re-launched and USD-denominated Atlantis New China Fortune Fund and the sterling-denominated iShares FTSE Xinhua China tracker, because China has lagged in recent months. This is not without a reason, as we know, because from last July China encountered heavy supply from IPOs at a time when the government was reining in credit. However the IPOs have slowed and credit tightening is mainly to prevent a property bubble, while keeping the dynamic long-term growth outlook on track. I would rather buy China when people are worried about it, rather than when it is a stock market performance leader. There are numerous other China vehicles listed in the Library for anyone of a similar view.

I could also top-up our small position in the db x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF (UK). Vietnam has lagged because it has an inflation problem and the currency was devalued (shown here as the USD appreciating against the VND). Nevertheless, I think the long-term outlook is compelling. Incidentally, if I paid up for an Asian growth fund it would be the Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust. The performance has been superb and I really should add to this position on a setback.

Among developed country markets, Japan is currently interesting. Most of us older stagers have a love / hate relationship with Japan's stock market and with a couple of exceptions hate has been ascendant since 1990. I maintain that a weaker yen is crucial to a successful stock market recovery for Japan. Were it to weaken, I think we would gain much more in the equity performance for this export-oriented economy than we stand to lose via the yen. With Japan I would opt for a fund, such as the dollar-denominated Atlantis Japan Growth Investment Trust which currently sells at a 15% discount to NAV, according to Bloomberg.

I am still thinking about ISA allocations. I strongly advise all subscribers in a similar position to do their own due diligence. Any thoughts on candidates from the Collective would be welcomed. I suspect our interests are sufficiently diverse that this would not work against our individual interests, although a currently inform stock market could.

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