Email of the day (3)
"We seem to be in 'the ISA season' again! Previously David has made a few suggestions for family investment. His current ideas would be very welcome!
"(I recall attending a Chart Analysis seminar about 35 to 40 yrs ago - where I seem to recall David speaking! Could my memory be correct? I think it was run by a lady whose surname I cannot recall - beginning with a D??) I 'lost' contact for many years - but greatly appreciate your service now I have more time to think! Sincere regards)"
David Fuller's view How nice to hear from you and thanks
for the comments. Your memory is correct - my first London seminar was in 1970.
They have been held every year subsequently and Eoin has been conducting them
since 2008.
Regarding
ISAs, I believe the new season commences on 6th April at which time each individual
can add £10,200 to their account. ISAs do not have to pay CGT on profits,
so they are a good vehicle for UK citizens, despite Gordon Brown's shameful
introduction of a tax on dividends some years ago.
ISA top-up
dates commence during a period when stock markets are entering a less rewarding
period seasonally, although last year certainly proved to be an exception. I
remain hopeful for 2010. As Mrs Fuller and I are still gainfully employed (she
as a psychoanalyst), we tend to invest in Fullermoney themes rather than income
generating funds. However, they have done quite well and while I am happy to
hold, I am reluctant to chase.
Consequently
I am looking for laggards which have at least cyclical catch-up potential. A
drawback to this approach is that markets often lag for a good reason, which
needs to change if investment demand is to increase sufficiently to produce
relative performance. Also, because we are talking about ISAs, the candidates
need to be listed in the UK to qualify for eligibility.
I
could top-up one of my two China funds, which are the re-launched and USD-denominated
Atlantis New China Fortune Fund
and the sterling-denominated iShares
FTSE Xinhua China tracker, because China has lagged in recent months. This
is not without a reason, as we know, because from last July China encountered
heavy supply from IPOs at a time when the government was reining in credit.
However the IPOs have slowed and credit tightening is mainly to prevent a property
bubble, while keeping the dynamic long-term growth outlook on track. I would
rather buy China when people are worried about it, rather than when it is a
stock market performance leader. There are numerous other China vehicles listed
in the Library for anyone of a similar view.
I could
also top-up our small position in the db
x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF (UK). Vietnam has lagged because it has an inflation
problem and the currency was devalued (shown here
as the USD appreciating against the VND). Nevertheless, I think the long-term
outlook is compelling. Incidentally, if I paid up for an Asian growth fund it
would be the Aberdeen New Dawn Investment
Trust. The performance has been superb and I really should add to this position
on a setback.
Among
developed country markets, Japan is currently interesting. Most of us older
stagers have a love / hate relationship with Japan's stock market and with a
couple of exceptions hate has been ascendant since 1990. I maintain that a weaker
yen is crucial to a successful stock market recovery for Japan. Were it to weaken,
I think we would gain much more in the equity performance for this export-oriented
economy than we stand to lose via the yen. With Japan I would opt for a fund,
such as the dollar-denominated Atlantis
Japan Growth Investment Trust which currently sells at a 15% discount to
NAV, according to Bloomberg.
I am
still thinking about ISA allocations. I strongly advise all subscribers in a
similar position to do their own due diligence. Any thoughts on candidates from
the Collective would be welcomed. I suspect our interests are sufficiently diverse
that this would not work against our individual interests, although a currently
inform stock market could.