"Do you still maintain that the U.S. Treasury bond entered a secular bear market in 2008? Do you ascribe any probability to the notion that the U.S. is an analog to Japan, and that we might see 1% Treasury Bonds?"

David Fuller's view With the 2008 low for US 10-year Treasury yields being challenged and the downtrend channel still intact (historic & weekly), my forecast was at least premature. Moreover, following this month's break beneath the higher low in October 2010, there are currently no technical grounds for saying that 1% could not be reached. Currently, Treasuries look very overbought to me but a big rally is required to reaffirm support near 2%.