"This FarmDocDaily Report from the University of Illinois provides a fascinating analysis of USDA forecasting errors over the past 41 years:

"The study shows that the USDA is significantly more likely to overestimate crops than underestimate them, and that forecasts improve as they have more data (wow, who'd a thunk)... the report also contains a link back to a previous study with additional insights."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for these informative links contributed in the spirit of Empowerment Through Knowledge. Price action is often one of the soundest indicators of crop health because those with inside knowledge are often early as they position themselves for where they anticipate prices to move.