Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

March 16 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On deposit rates
"Many months ago you referred to the benefits of investing in a New Zealand deposit based facility, and no doubt your subscribers would be interested in knowing if there are still any competitive areas available for short term deposit based arrangements.

"I trust you are well and rapidly returning to your best in terms of your health."

David Fuller's view I am getting there, thanks.

You may be referring to this summary, posted on Tuesday 6th October 2009, when I was still convalescing and working from home.


Subsequently, sterling did rally temporarily against the New Zealand dollar (GBP/NZD) (historic, weekly & daily) but not sufficiently to tempt me back into the NZD, AUD or any other fully convertible currency. The pound then fell back against other currencies, on economic concerns and General Election uncertainty, reaching new lows in some instances. Presumably, I could have opened a deposit account with one of the leading Indian banks last October, enabling me to buy the rupee for yield and appreciation. That would have been profitable but a combination of inertia and preoccupation with other trades and investments prevented me from doing so.

If your enquiry is based on concern over further sterling weakness, from an investment perspective I feel that it is too late for me to sell, as mentioned recently in response to Email 1 on Tuesday 2nd March. Today, the pound is a cheap currency and while the UK economic outlook is hardly reassuring, this is mostly priced in against currencies of OECD countries which have broadly similar problems, including the USA. This would not necessarily prevent sterling from a further but almost certainly temporary slide and I would not be surprised if it is firmer once the May 6th election result uncertainty is resolved.

If your enquiry is prompted by a hunt for yield, you may wish to focus on corporate bonds or equities. I prefer the latter and Eoin has pointed out some high-yielders recently, including the Japanese REITs. However one also hears reports that yield-hungry Japanese are investing in Thailand's shares.

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