Email of the day (3)
"Thank you both for the very helpful reply to my Don Coxe Euro outlook query, much appreciated.
"Looking back at my request, I can see that I failed to convey my central question adequately, so, if you have time, here it is…'do you think we need to see a weaker Euro before we can look forward to a reliable bull run in equities' ?"
David Fuller's view You are most welcome and I think we were
both too interested in other aspects of your earlier email to remember the question
above.
No, I
do not think we need to see a weaker euro before we can look forward to a reliable
bull run in equities. That is just a theory. The next significant rally may
or may not coincide with a weaker euro but there are more important influences.
It
is the fear of economic contagion spreading from theoretical European bank failures
and even the break up of the euro that has spooked many investors around the
globe. Therefore a weaker euro, while perhaps justifiable fundamentally and
therefore helpful for the less competitive European economies, could even exacerbate
anxieties among global investors.
What
we may need for the next good stock market rally, in my opinion, is a justifiable
consensus that Europe's problems are both contained and in the process of being
resolved, however slowly, thus reducing the risk of collapse and contagion.
The next most important catalyst, I maintain, would be clear evidence that growth
economies are adopting more stimulative monetary policies. To this end, lower
oil prices would help but they remain firm at present (WTI
& Brent).