"Thought David and Eoin might find this interesting."

David Fuller's view Thanks for this interesting analysis from my old friend and distinguished technician John Murphy.

I remain very much of the view that a rise in government bond yields will cause some investors to switch funds from fixed interest to equities, at least until yields in the former eventually rise sufficiently to be regarded as more attractive on a relative risk basis.

Thereafter, while I an intrigued by John Murphy's interesting comments, 1951 was very different from 2012, and not just chronologically. Back then, the US economy was taking off in the post-WW2 boom period. Stocks had tremendous earnings growth ahead of them and the cult of the equity was still in its infancy. I do not think that we can expect anything like the 1950s GDP growth rate in the current decade. Nevertheless, some Autonomies are clearly doing very well and they have the additional advantage of an exponential rise in technological innovation.