Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

June 15 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On corn, from a pre-subscriber:
"I am a non-subscriber yet an avid reader of Fullermoney's free daily e-mail. Unless I miss something, (1) July Corn futures remain by far the most active in terms of daily volume, (2) September is the last old-crop contract, and (3) December is the first new-crop and currently the second-most active in terms of volume but also has the most open interest. (Please see image below taken directly from CME's web site.)"

David Fuller's view Thanks for your comments.

You are correct about the volume and your email prompted me to refresh my memory regarding the criteria we use for price data on corn and other commodity futures. It is based on open interest rather than volume so our corn continuation charts automatically switched over to the December contract recently. I have amended yesterday's Comment accordingly.

The squeeze in old crop corn is in the July contract, as you know. By virtue of its production, September corn is really new crop. Here is John Macintosh on the subject:

"September corn is technically new crop as the crop year starts September 1 .In a normal year we will have harvested 300 to 400 million bushels of southern corn by then. Last year that number was around 650 million. This year that number looks like it will be close to 1 billion. So this year September 1 becomes around August 22. The trouble is, I don't see how we get past August 1 with old crop. My worst fear is that it plays itself out in the cash after the July futures have expired."

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