Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

July 12 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On "the hook" to keep you bullish (received 30th June but slipped through my fingers at the time)
Could the favorable monetary conditions that you so often speak of be "the hook" to keep you bullish in the clearly current deflationary environment that we are investing in.

"In today's economic environment, low interest rates are a symptom of a problem-- private sector deleveraging and the beginning of government austerity overwhelming the printing press.

"This time it may be different."

David Fuller's view Yes, and I have often said that monetary policy trumps most other factors most of the time. And yes, it may be different in some countries due to deleveraging and austerity programmes but that is not where I am investing.

How much private sector deleveraging and government austerity do you see in Fullermoney themes? Their problems are more inflationary than deflationary. For instance, my biggest personal long-term equity investment is in India. India does have an inflationary problem, not least due to last year's poor monsoon, the removal of some energy subsidies and GDP growth of approximately 9 percent.

However, low interest rates in the West, due to weak growth and deflationary problems, have caused strong Asia-Pacific economies to keep rates lower than would otherwise be the case, not least to prevent too much appreciation in their respective currencies. Low interest rates have cushioned downside risk in many stock markets and kept them firm recently where GDP growth and corporate profits are strong.

I respectfully offer an additional maxim to those in Email 2 above: 6) As a global investor, do not view the world solely through the prism of your own country.

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