Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

July 15 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

More on uranium
"David, re today's piece on Uranium, you may not know that ERA is separately listed (ticker ERA!), yields 2.8% and has negligible debt. Canadian coy Denison, DML, (formerly in the RTZ stable) also has many irons in the uranium fire and manages Uranium Participation Corp, (TSE:U) which may be an alternative to access a pure-ish metal play for FMs who don't use futures."

David Fuller's view Thanks for this reminder and also the link. Energy Resources of Australia (weekly & daily) is the uranium company majority owned by Rio Tinto, mentioned in yesterday's report. The share looks cheap and seems to have a good balance sheet. It has no debt and pays a dividend which can vary widely, having been 4% last year and indicated at 2.82 for this year, according to Bloomberg.

Denison Mines (weekly & daily) looks more speculative to me, although it is trading at a price to book of only .55. It is currently losing money, but has almost no debt and will presumably do well when the uranium price strengthens. Uranium Participation Corp (weekly & daily) looks like the more conservative play at the moment but I would prefer Denison when the price of Uranium starts to rise. My strategy, if I increase my uranium exposure which is conservative at the moment, may be to buy Denison when the actual metal begins to perform.

Prices of the previously moribund uranium mining companies are beginning to stir but that is not yet a compelling argument. There will certainly be money to be made in this sector but we may have to be patient. The beauty of a genuine bull market in uranium, as we discussed last time around, is that the weekly Metal Bulletin price can be unrelentingly strong, rising in small weekly increments, due to very limited futures activity. However when it was accelerating higher (the Type-1 trend ending, as taught at The Chart Seminar) savvy investors anticipated trouble and sold the shares before the metal peaked. This pattern and sequence of events could easily be repeated in the forthcoming upward cycle.

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