Email of the day
Comment of the Day

October 26 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On discussing the 200-day MA:
"I must be very dim. Having traded financial markets using number sequences on graphs for more than half a century, I'm having difficulty with your concept of "Any company which trades TO THE LEFT OF (my capitals) a rising 200-day moving average [your 25 Oct Comment of the Day on Internet Trends].

"On my charts, a price sequence being compared with a moving average of those prices is either above (higher) or below (lower than) the average at any given time.

"Should I be rotating my charts through 90 degrees for better understanding? Please enlighten this bewildered wretch."

David Fuller's view Your self-deprecatory humour becomes you.

It is partly a question of semantics, although both Eoin and I prefer our terminology because the 200-day MA will be a more effective analytical tool in a medium to longer-term trending rather than broadly ranging market.

Since the 200-day MA is a medium-term trend smoothing device, price to the left of an upward trending MA is important in terms of regression analysis. In other words, and as mentioned on many occasions over the years, we prefer to lighten on historically high overextensions relative to the MA and buy following price mean reversion reactions close to a rising MA. The converse would apply in downward trending markets.

If price is to the left of the MA in an upward trending market it will obviously also be above the MA. However, in a lengthy ranging market of some volatility, the price will move above or below the MA without the same analytical implications as in a medium-term trend.

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